Iowa
6-0
Northwestern
6-0
Win Probability
This matchup between undefeated Iowa and undefeated Northwestern projects as a coin-flip, with the simulation barely favoring the Wildcats at home. The deciding factor is volume through the air: Aidan Chiles is projected for 170 passing yards while Hank Brown manages just 140, a gap that compounds across Northwestern's receiving targets like Griffin Wilde at 45 yards. On similar games with these win probabilities, AccuScore's model has gone 36% over 64 prior contests, a cautionary record. For Iowa to prevail in this low-scoring affair, the Hawkeyes would need to sustain their ground game and limit Northwestern's passing attack well below projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H IOWA ML
IOWA +100
-3.4% EV
42.5% leads · push 8.1%
betPARX ↗
1H NU ML
NU -110
+1.2% EV
49.4% leads · push 8.1%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | NU | EV | IOWA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2.5 | -115 | -4.8% | -105 | +0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -112 | -4.3% | -108 | -0.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2.5 | -112 | -4.3% | -105 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2.5 | -112 | -4.3% | -108 | -0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -115 | -4.8% | -105 | +0.4% |
| Book | NU | EV | IOWA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -135 | -2.0% | +114 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -134 | -1.9% | +112 | -2.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -135 | -2.0% | +110 | -2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -132 | -1.6% | +112 | -2.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -135 | -2.0% | +115 | -1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 45.5 | -109 | -2.2% | -112 | -2.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.7%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern 55% to beat Iowa (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northwestern a 55% chance of beating Iowa, against 45% for Iowa. Northwestern are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Iowa (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.4–3.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northwestern (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 8.4–3.6 | 1% | 19% |
| Northwestern | 7.8–4.2 | <1% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Iowa and Northwestern come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Iowa have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Northwestern have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Iowa 8, Northwestern 5. The last meeting, on Oct 26, 2024, finished Northwestern 14, Iowa 40.
Iowa are 84-21 as favourite and 16-40 as underdog, and 45-34 on the road (57% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Northwestern are 46-17 as favourite and 32-60 as underdog, and 44-45 at home (49% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | IOWA | NU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 84-21 | 46-17 |
| As underdog | 16-40 | 32-60 |
| At home | 60-32 | 44-45 |
| On the road | 45-34 | 36-38 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →