UCLA
8-0
Minnesota
5-0
Win Probability
UCLA travels to Minnesota as clear favorites in this matchup of undefeated teams. The simulation leans strongly toward the Bruins, though Minnesota's defence keeps the game competitive enough that the Gophers have a genuine path to cover. Drake Lindsey projects for 180 passing yards, well ahead of UCLA's Ty Dieffenbach at 140, but that gap shrinks when accounting for ground game contributions—Wayne Knight is projected for 60 rushing yards against Darius Taylor at 40. Over 61 similar games in the historical record, the favored away side has won only 51% of the time. For Minnesota to pull the upset, its passing game would need to sustain drives that the UCLA secondary cannot disrupt.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UCLA ML
UCLA -175
-2.0% EV
55.8% leads · push 8.2%
BetMGM ↗
1H MINN ML
MINN +160
+0.9% EV
36.0% leads · push 8.2%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UCLA -3.5 +105
-2.4% EV
46.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
MINN +3.5 -115
+0.1% EV
53.6% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
O 19.5 -125
+0.1% EV
55.7% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 19.5 +107
-4.1% EV
44.3% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | MINN | EV | UCLA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +5 | -108 | -2.2% | -110 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | +5.5 | -106 | -0.2% | -113 | -4.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +5.5 | -105 | +0.0% | -115 | -4.4% |
| Book | MINN | EV | UCLA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +180 | +0.7% | -218 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +180 | +0.7% | -215 | -3.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +175 | -0.2% | -210 | -2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +181 | +0.9% | -218 | -3.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +180 | +0.7% | -215 | -3.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 39.5 | -108 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 39.5 | -106 | +1.7% | -113 | -5.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 36.2%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UCLA 64% to beat Minnesota (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UCLA the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota a 36% chance of beating UCLA, against 64% for UCLA. Minnesota are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UCLA (8-0 so far) project to finish 10.4–1.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 62% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Minnesota (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.4–5.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UCLA and Minnesota come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UCLA have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Minnesota have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: UCLA 0, Minnesota 1. The last meeting, on Oct 11, 2024, finished Minnesota 21, UCLA 17.
UCLA are 67-24 as favourite and 22-52 as underdog, and 39-42 on the road (48% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
Minnesota are 56-14 as favourite and 34-58 as underdog, and 61-32 at home (66% of 93 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UCLA | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 67-24 | 56-14 |
| As underdog | 22-52 | 34-58 |
| At home | 54-37 | 61-32 |
| On the road | 39-42 | 34-42 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →