NCAAF
Michigan State
2-0
Michigan
5-0
Win Probability
Michigan State travels to face Michigan in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Tommy Carr projects to 110 passing yards for Michigan, while Kenneth Williams is expected to contribute 20 rushing yards in a game that will likely turn on whether the Spartans can generate enough offensive output to keep pace. AccuScore's model has graded 66 similar games favoring the home team at this probability level, winning 62 percent of them. For Michigan State to pull off the upset, it would need to exceed the simulation's offensive expectations significantly—Chrishon McCray and Fredrick Moore would both need to exceed their projected 25 receiving yards substantially to keep the Spartans competitive.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MSU ML
MSU +310
-1.2% EV
22.1% leads · push 6.8%
betPARX ↗
1H MICH ML
MICH -375
-1.6% EV
71.0% leads · push 6.8%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MSU +6.5 +110
-1.7% EV
46.0% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
MICH -6.5 -130
-2.3% EV
54.0% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 20.5 +100
+1.3% EV
51.3% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 20.5 -118
-5.0% EV
48.7% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | MICH | EV | MSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -13.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -13.5 | -106 | -3.3% | -114 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -13 | -110 | -2.4% | -108 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -13.5 | -108 | -3.7% | -112 | -0.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -13.5 | -110 | -4.1% | -110 | -0.4% |
| Book | MICH | EV | MSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -550 | -2.1% | +410 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -580 | -2.5% | +440 | +1.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -550 | -2.1% | +425 | -0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -590 | -2.6% | +425 | -0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -650 | -3.2% | +425 | -0.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 39.5 | -112 | -0.0% | -108 | -4.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 40.5 | -106 | -1.0% | -114 | -3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +0.4% | -108 | -4.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +0.4% | -109 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | +0.4% | -110 | -5.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan 81% to beat Michigan State (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan a 81% chance of beating Michigan State, against 19% for Michigan State. Michigan are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Michigan State (2-6 so far) project to finish 3.4–8.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.7–5.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | 3.4–8.6 | 0% | <1% |
| Michigan | 6.7–5.3 | 0% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Michigan State and Michigan come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Michigan State have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Michigan have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Michigan are 112-18 as favourite and 9-34 as underdog, and 86-19 at home (82% of 105 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 112-18 |
| As underdog | — | 9-34 |
| At home | — | 86-19 |
| On the road | — | 39-37 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →