Florida State
3-0
Boston College
4-0
Win Probability
Florida State travels to Boston College as clear favorites in this matchup between undefeated teams. The simulation leans decisively toward the Seminoles, projecting a close contest that hinges on passing efficiency: Ashton Daniels is forecast for 190 passing yards against Mason McKenzie's 180, a narrow margin in a game where both offenses will need to move the ball consistently. Boston College's ground game, anchored by Bo MacCormack III at 45 rushing yards, offers a path to keep pace. AccuScore's model has converted 6 of 8 similar matchups with this win-probability shape, though its long-term record on such games runs slightly negative. For Boston College to upset the projection, the Eagles would need to establish dominance in the trenches while forcing Florida State into inefficiency downfield.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H FSU ML
FSU -190
-1.4% EV
58.6% leads · push 7.9%
BetMGM ↗
1H BC ML
BC +180
+0.9% EV
33.6% leads · push 7.9%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | BC | EV | FSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +6.5 | -105 | -2.9% | -115 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +6.5 | -110 | -4.0% | -110 | -0.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +6.5 | -110 | -4.0% | -108 | -0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | +6.5 | -105 | -2.9% | -114 | -1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +6.5 | +100 | -1.8% | -120 | -2.6% |
| Book | BC | EV | FSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +210 | -0.9% | -258 | -2.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +195 | -3.2% | -240 | -1.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +200 | -2.4% | -235 | -1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +215 | -0.1% | -265 | -3.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +225 | +1.5% | -275 | -3.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -118 | +0.6% | -102 | -5.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -105 | +0.9% | -115 | -5.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 50.5 | -118 | +0.6% | -102 | -5.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 50.5 | -114 | +1.4% | -105 | -5.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 51.5 | -105 | +0.9% | -115 | -5.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 31.7%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State 68% to beat Boston College (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boston College a 32% chance of beating Florida State, against 68% for Florida State. Boston College are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Florida State (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.9–7.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Boston College (4-4 so far) project to finish 4.8–7.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 4.9–7.1 | 0% | <1% |
| Boston College | 4.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Florida State and Boston College come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Florida State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Boston College have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Florida State 10, Boston College 2. The last meeting, on Sep 2, 2024, finished Boston College 28, Florida State 13.
Florida State are 84-27 as favourite and 11-39 as underdog, and 37-40 on the road (48% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
Boston College are 29-22 as favourite and 30-74 as underdog, and 33-49 at home (40% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 84-27 | 29-22 |
| As underdog | 11-39 | 30-74 |
| At home | 59-31 | 33-49 |
| On the road | 37-40 | 30-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →