Duke
6-0
NC State
4-0
Win Probability
Duke travels to face NC State in a matchup where the simulation favors the Blue Devils clearly. Walker Eget is projected for 190 passing yards against a NC State defense that figures to give up similar yardage through CJ Bailey, while Nate Sheppard is expected to rush for 65 yards compared to Davion Gause's 50. The game hinges on whether Duke's passing attack can sustain drives; NC State's receiving corps, led by Keenan Jackson at 35 projected yards, will need explosive plays to keep pace. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one—60 to 70 percent favorites on the road—stands at 51% over 61 similar matchups. NC State would need to establish the run and force Duke into uncomfortable situations to engineer an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H DUKE ML
DUKE -165
-3.1% EV
53.5% leads · push 7.9%
BetMGM ↗
1H NCSU ML
NCSU +150
+2.3% EV
38.7% leads · push 7.9%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
DUKE -3.5 +100
-5.0% EV
45.0% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
NCSU +3.5 -120
+0.4% EV
55.0% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -108
-1.3% EV
50.5% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 -108
-2.4% EV
49.5% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | NCSU | EV | DUKE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +4.5 | -105 | +0.7% | -115 | -5.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +4.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +5 | -110 | +1.2% | -108 | -5.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | +4.5 | -105 | +0.7% | -114 | -4.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +4.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.1% |
| Book | NCSU | EV | DUKE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +164 | +1.7% | -198 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +158 | +0.6% | -188 | -3.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +160 | +1.0% | -190 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +167 | +2.3% | -200 | -4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +160 | +1.0% | -190 | -3.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 51.5 | -108 | -0.1% | -112 | -4.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -108 | -0.1% | -112 | -4.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 51.5 | -108 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 51.5 | -109 | -0.3% | -112 | -4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 39.2%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Duke 61% to beat NC State (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Duke the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives NC State a 39% chance of beating Duke, against 61% for Duke. NC State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Duke (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
NC State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Duke and NC State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Duke have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
NC State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2013: Duke 3, NC State 1. The last meeting, on Sep 20, 2025, finished NC State 33, Duke 45.
Duke are 47-25 as favourite and 33-56 as underdog, and 41-43 on the road (49% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
NC State are 65-19 as favourite and 20-54 as underdog, and 57-31 at home (65% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 47-25 | 65-19 |
| As underdog | 33-56 | 20-54 |
| At home | 44-40 | 57-31 |
| On the road | 41-43 | 31-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →