NCAAF
West Virginia
5-0
Texas Tech
7-0
Win Probability
Unbeaten West Virginia travels to Lubbock to face unbeaten Texas Tech in a stark mismatch by simulation: the model decisively favours the Red Raiders at home. The game turns on Texas Tech's ground game and passing efficiency against West Virginia's secondary—Thomas Castellanos projects for 110 passing yards and J'Koby Williams for 85 rushing yards, while Michael Hawkins Jr. is expected to struggle through just 170 through the air. AccuScore has graded 42 games shaped this way over its history, backing the favoured home team in each instance; it was right 64% of the time. For the Mountaineers to upset the projection, their defence would need to neutralise Williams's ground threat and force Castellanos into uncomfortable situations early.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H WVU ML
WVU +420
+2.2% EV
19.0% leads · push 5.5%
FanDuel ↗
1H TTU ML
TTU -525
-2.3% EV
75.5% leads · push 5.5%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
WVU +10.5 -110
-0.1% EV
52.3% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
TTU -10.5 -105
-3.5% EV
47.7% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 34.5 -102
-5.3% EV
45.1% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 34.5 -115
+1.3% EV
54.9% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | TTU | EV | WVU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -16.5 | -118 | -2.1% | -102 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -16.5 | -115 | -1.5% | -105 | -3.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -16.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -17 | -112 | -2.3% | -108 | -2.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -16.5 | -115 | -1.5% | -105 | -3.0% |
| Book | TTU | EV | WVU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -900 | -1.2% | +600 | -7.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -880 | -1.1% | +590 | -8.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -900 | -1.2% | +625 | -6.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -950 | -1.4% | +600 | -7.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1000 | -1.7% | +600 | -7.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 64.5 | -115 | -2.1% | -105 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 65.5 | -108 | -2.8% | -112 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 64.5 | -112 | -1.5% | -105 | -2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 64.5 | -116 | -2.3% | -103 | -1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 64.5 | -115 | -2.1% | -105 | -2.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech 88% to beat West Virginia (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas Tech a 88% chance of beating West Virginia, against 12% for West Virginia. Texas Tech are at home and favoured on these numbers.
West Virginia (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas Tech (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.6–2.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 41% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | <1% |
| Texas Tech | 9.6–2.4 | 12% | 41% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How West Virginia and Texas Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
West Virginia have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Texas Tech have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
West Virginia are 52-27 as favourite and 26-50 as underdog, and 37-45 on the road (45% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WVU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 52-27 | — |
| As underdog | 26-50 | — |
| At home | 46-37 | — |
| On the road | 37-45 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →