Oklahoma State
5-0
Kansas State
4-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Oklahoma State travels to face undefeated Kansas State in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visiting Cowboys. The game hinges on Oklahoma State's passing attack: Drew Mestemaker projects for 220 yards through the air, while Caleb Hawkins is expected to contribute 75 rushing yards as the ground game support. Kansas State's Joe Jackson should see 55 rushing yards in the backfield. On games shaped like this one—slight favorites on the road—AccuScore's model has returned 35% across 82 prior matchups. For Kansas State to pull the upset at home, the Wildcats would need their defence to consistently disrupt Oklahoma State's passing rhythm and establish sustained offensive drives behind Jackson.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H OKST ML
OKST -155
-3.3% EV
51.8% leads · push 8.0%
BetMGM ↗
1H KSU ML
KSU +142
+2.6% EV
40.2% leads · push 8.0%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
OKST -2.5 -114
-4.3% EV
48.7% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
KSU +2.5 -102
+0.8% EV
51.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 30.5 -125
-0.9% EV
54.6% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 30.5 +105
-3.5% EV
45.4% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | KSU | EV | OKST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +4.5 | -108 | +2.6% | -112 | -7.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +4.5 | -106 | +3.1% | -114 | -7.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +4.5 | -108 | +2.6% | -110 | -6.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +4.5 | -113 | +1.5% | -106 | -5.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +4.5 | -105 | +3.3% | -115 | -7.6% |
| Book | KSU | EV | OKST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +180 | +8.9% | -218 | -7.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +164 | +5.6% | -200 | -6.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +175 | +7.9% | -210 | -7.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +172 | +7.3% | -205 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +190 | +11.0% | -225 | -8.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 61.5 | -115 | +0.1% | -105 | -4.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 62.5 | -106 | -0.2% | -114 | -4.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 62.5 | -105 | +0.1% | -112 | -3.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 62 | -106 | +1.0% | -114 | -5.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 61.5 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 42.1%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State 58% to beat Kansas State (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas State a 42% chance of beating Oklahoma State, against 58% for Oklahoma State. Kansas State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Oklahoma State (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.1–4.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | 7.1–4.9 | <1% | 3% |
| Kansas State | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oklahoma State and Kansas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oklahoma State have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Kansas State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2011: Oklahoma State 7, Kansas State 7. The last meeting, on Nov 15, 2025, finished Kansas State 14, Oklahoma State 6.
Oklahoma State are 80-25 as favourite and 22-34 as underdog, and 44-37 on the road (54% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
Kansas State are 62-17 as favourite and 30-49 as underdog, and 60-30 at home (67% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | OKST | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 80-25 | 62-17 |
| As underdog | 22-34 | 30-49 |
| At home | 60-30 | 60-30 |
| On the road | 44-37 | 39-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →