Iowa State
4-0
Baylor
5-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Iowa State team travels to face an undefeated Baylor side in a matchup where the simulation favors the home team decisively. The difference turns on passing volume: Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway is projected for 200 yards while Iowa State's Jaylen Raynor reaches only 170, a gap that compounds across a full game. Aiden Flora may carry the load on the ground with 60 rushing yards, but Baylor's receiver Gavin Freeman is projected for 50 yards in what shapes as a controlled offensive environment. AccuScore's model has won 62 percent of the time on games favoring the home side with similar win probabilities, though similar past games went the other way seven times in eight instances. Iowa State would need to exceed their passing projection significantly while bottling up Lagway's rhythm to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ISU ML
ISU +235
+0.8% EV
28.2% leads · push 7.1%
FanDuel ↗
1H BAY ML
BAY -275
-2.3% EV
64.7% leads · push 7.1%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | BAY | EV | ISU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10 | -108 | -1.9% | -112 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -118 | -2.5% | -104 | -2.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -9.5 | -112 | -1.3% | -105 | -2.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -10 | -107 | -1.7% | -113 | -2.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -9.5 | -115 | -1.9% | -105 | -2.6% |
| Book | BAY | EV | ISU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -375 | -2.4% | +295 | -0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -375 | -2.4% | +280 | -2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -375 | -2.4% | +300 | -0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -360 | -2.0% | +280 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -380 | -2.6% | +290 | -1.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -112 | -0.9% | -108 | -3.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -104 | -1.7% | -118 | -3.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 50.5 | -115 | -1.6% | -105 | -3.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 50.5 | -114 | -1.4% | -106 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.0% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Baylor 75% to beat Iowa State (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Baylor the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Baylor a 75% chance of beating Iowa State, against 25% for Iowa State. Baylor are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Iowa State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Baylor (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.9–5.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | 5.8–6.2 | 0% | <1% |
| Baylor | 6.9–5.1 | <1% | 3% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Iowa State and Baylor come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Iowa State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Baylor have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Iowa State 5, Baylor 8. The last meeting, on Oct 5, 2024, finished Baylor 21, Iowa State 43.
Iowa State are 45-16 as favourite and 24-70 as underdog, and 31-50 on the road (38% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
Baylor are 72-23 as favourite and 24-40 as underdog, and 58-27 at home (68% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ISU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 45-16 | 72-23 |
| As underdog | 24-70 | 24-40 |
| At home | 44-41 | 58-27 |
| On the road | 31-50 | 44-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →