Colorado
3-0
Arizona State
4-0
Win Probability
Arizona State hosts Colorado in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side clearly. The game turns on Colorado's passing attack: Isaac Wilson projects to 150 passing yards, but Arizona State's pass defense will be tested against receivers like DeAndre Moore Jr., who is projected for 30 receiving yards. On offense, Arizona State leans on Reed Harris, who is forecast for 65 receiving yards. AccuScore's model favors home teams in win-probability spots around this level at a 57% rate across 79 graded games. For Colorado to pull the upset, Wilson will need to sustain drives downfield while Arizona State's ground game, led by Cardae Mack at 50 rushing yards, stalls.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H COLO ML
COLO +130
-3.4% EV
37.3% leads · push 7.5%
theScore Bet ↗
1H ASU ML
ASU -135
+1.8% EV
55.2% leads · push 7.5%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
COLO +1.5 -110
-5.1% EV
47.0% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
ASU -1.5 -105
+1.7% EV
53.0% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 +106
+2.0% EV
50.5% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -125
-5.5% EV
49.5% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | ASU | EV | COLO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3 | -115 | +2.8% | -105 | -7.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | +100 | +4.5% | -122 | -8.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3 | -115 | +2.8% | -102 | -6.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -3 | -115 | +2.8% | -105 | -7.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -3.5 | +100 | +4.5% | -120 | -8.3% |
| Book | ASU | EV | COLO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -162 | +1.1% | +136 | -6.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -162 | +1.1% | +136 | -6.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -160 | +1.3% | +135 | -6.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -162 | +1.1% | +137 | -6.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -155 | +2.0% | +135 | -6.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -112 | +1.9% | -108 | -6.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -112 | +1.9% | -108 | -6.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +2.4% | -108 | -6.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -109 | +2.6% | -110 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +2.4% | -110 | -6.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.5%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona State 63% to beat Colorado (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona State the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arizona State a 63% chance of beating Colorado, against 37% for Colorado. Arizona State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Colorado (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.3–7.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arizona State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 4.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% |
| Arizona State | 5.8–6.2 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Colorado and Arizona State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Colorado have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Arizona State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Colorado 3, Arizona State 9. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished Arizona State 42, Colorado 17.
Colorado are 25-9 as favourite and 21-97 as underdog, and 19-61 on the road (24% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
Arizona State are 61-25 as favourite and 23-48 as underdog, and 62-28 at home (69% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | COLO | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 25-9 | 61-25 |
| As underdog | 21-97 | 23-48 |
| At home | 32-48 | 62-28 |
| On the road | 19-61 | 31-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →