Cincinnati
5-0
Houston
6-0
Win Probability
Cincinnati travels to Houston as two unbeaten teams collide, though AccuScore's simulation decisively favors the Cougars at home. The Bearcats' passing game projects to lean heavily on JC French IV's 200 yards, with Cole Tabb contributing 60 on the ground, but Houston's ground attack through Makhi Hughes (70 yards) and receiving threats like Amare Thomas (40 yards) should control tempo. The game hinges on whether Cincinnati can sustain drives; across eight similar matchups, AccuScore's favored side won seven. For the Bearcats to upset the hosts, French IV and their receivers would need to operate well beyond their projections while containing Houston's ground game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H CIN ML
CIN +250
-0.5% EV
26.5% leads · push 6.3%
DraftKings ↗
1H HOU ML
HOU -295
-1.9% EV
67.2% leads · push 6.3%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
CIN +6.5 +102
-1.9% EV
47.6% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
HOU -6.5 -120
-2.0% EV
52.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 31.5 +100
-4.3% EV
45.6% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 31.5 -118
+0.2% EV
54.4% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | HOU | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -11.5 | -105 | -2.2% | -115 | -2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | +0.0% | -110 | -4.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -11 | -108 | -1.1% | -110 | -2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -11 | -112 | -1.9% | -112 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -11.5 | -105 | -2.2% | -115 | -2.3% |
| Book | HOU | EV | CIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -440 | -2.6% | +340 | -0.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -400 | -1.7% | +310 | -3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -450 | -2.8% | +333 | -0.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -420 | -2.1% | +330 | -1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -450 | -2.8% | +340 | -0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 62.5 | -110 | -5.9% | -110 | +1.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 62.5 | -115 | -6.8% | -105 | +2.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 62.5 | -110 | -5.9% | -108 | +1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 62.5 | -113 | -6.4% | -108 | +1.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 62.5 | -110 | -5.9% | -110 | +1.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 52.4%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston 77% to beat Cincinnati (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Houston a 77% chance of beating Cincinnati, against 23% for Cincinnati. Houston are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cincinnati (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Houston (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.8–3.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 6.6–5.4 | 0% | <1% |
| Houston | 8.8–3.2 | 1% | 18% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Cincinnati and Houston come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cincinnati have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Houston have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2013: Cincinnati 6, Houston 2. The last meeting, on Sep 21, 2024, finished Houston 0, Cincinnati 34.
Cincinnati are 86-18 as favourite and 16-37 as underdog, and 47-36 on the road (57% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
Houston are 83-30 as favourite and 21-31 as underdog, and 57-31 at home (65% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 86-18 | 83-30 |
| As underdog | 16-37 | 21-31 |
| At home | 59-24 | 57-31 |
| On the road | 47-36 | 50-34 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →