UCF
4-0
Kansas
3-0
Win Probability
Moneyline
UCF
+125
38.8% win prob
EV -6.3%
Hard Rock Bet
Moneyline
KU
-140
61.2% win prob
EV +2.5%
theScore Bet
UCF travels to face Kansas in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side. Cole Ballard projects to 60 passing yards, a constraint that will define Kansas's offensive ceiling, while Duke Watson is expected to rush for 50 yards as the visitors' primary ball-carrier. The game turns on Kansas's ability to generate production through its pass catchers—Cam Pickett at 45 receiving yards and Nik McMillan at 35—against UCF's secondary. AccuScore's model has gone 6-2 on similar games across eight prior matchups. For UCF to pull off the upset, it would need to shut down Kansas's receiving weapons while forcing Ballard into a more efficient outing.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UCF ML
UCF +120
-3.8% EV
38.5% leads · push 7.6%
DraftKings ↗
1H KU ML
KU -125
+2.3% EV
53.9% leads · push 7.6%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UCF +1.5 -114
-4.7% EV
48.3% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Spread
KU -1.5 +100
+1.7% EV
51.7% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 +110
+1.5% EV
49.0% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -125
-4.1% EV
51.0% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | KU | EV | UCF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2.5 | -118 | +1.8% | -102 | -6.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -118 | +1.8% | +100 | -6.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3 | -105 | +2.6% | -115 | -6.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2.5 | -118 | +1.8% | -102 | -6.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -120 | +1.4% | +100 | -6.0% |
| Book | KU | EV | UCF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -142 | +2.1% | +120 | -7.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -142 | +2.1% | +120 | -7.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -145 | +1.7% | +120 | -7.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -141 | +2.3% | +120 | -7.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -140 | +2.5% | +120 | -7.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -108 | +2.1% | -112 | -6.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -122 | +1.1% | +100 | -6.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | +2.8% | -112 | -6.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | +2.8% | -114 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +1.6% | -110 | -6.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 61.2%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas 61% to beat UCF (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kansas the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas a 61% chance of beating UCF, against 39% for UCF. Kansas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UCF (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.9–7.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UCF and Kansas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UCF have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Kansas have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: UCF 0, Kansas 1. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2025, finished Kansas 27, UCF 20.
UCF are 85-24 as favourite and 14-37 as underdog, and 41-43 on the road (49% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
Kansas are 8-10 as favourite and 15-117 as underdog, and 21-57 at home (27% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UCF | KU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 85-24 | 8-10 |
| As underdog | 14-37 | 15-117 |
| At home | 60-25 | 21-57 |
| On the road | 41-43 | 7-73 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →