BYU
7-0
Utah
8-0
Win Probability
BYU travels to Utah for a matchup between two undefeated teams, with the simulation favoring the host. Devon Dampier projects to 200 passing yards while Bear Bachmeier is expected to reach 190, a marginal gap that reflects how tightly matched the passing games figure to be. The real separation comes on the ground: Utah's Daniel Bray is projected for 45 rushing yards against Preston Rex's 30, a 15-yard split that may determine field position and game tempo. AccuScore's model has gone 6-2 on similar win-probability shapes across eight comparable matchups. For BYU to pull the upset, the Cougars would need to exceed their passing projection and establish the run earlier than the numbers suggest.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H BYU ML
BYU +154
-4.0% EV
33.1% leads · push 8.0%
DraftKings ↗
1H UTAH ML
UTAH -174
+0.4% EV
58.9% leads · push 8.0%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
BYU +3.5 -115
-4.2% EV
49.0% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
UTAH -3.5 +100
+1.0% EV
51.0% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 +106
+0.1% EV
48.6% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -125
-3.7% EV
51.4% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | UTAH | EV | BYU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5.5 | -105 | +3.3% | -115 | -7.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4.5 | -115 | +3.2% | -105 | -8.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5 | -110 | +3.3% | -108 | -7.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -5 | -112 | +2.8% | -109 | -7.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -105 | +3.3% | -115 | -7.6% |
| Book | UTAH | EV | BYU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -205 | +1.0% | +170 | -7.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -194 | +2.0% | +162 | -8.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -200 | +1.4% | +165 | -8.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -205 | +1.0% | +169 | -7.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -210 | +0.6% | +175 | -6.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +0.4% | -110 | -5.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -115 | -0.6% | -105 | -3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -112 | -0.0% | -105 | -3.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -109 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +0.4% | -110 | -5.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.6%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah 69% to beat BYU (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah a 69% chance of beating BYU, against 31% for BYU. Utah are at home and favoured on these numbers.
BYU (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.4–2.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 36% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah (8-0 so far) project to finish 10.8–1.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 79% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How BYU and Utah come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
BYU have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Utah have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2011: BYU 3, Utah 8. The last meeting, on Oct 17, 2025, finished Utah 21, BYU 24.
BYU are 77-24 as favourite and 26-33 as underdog, and 49-38 on the road (56% of 87 games, 2011–2026).
Utah are 84-25 as favourite and 18-28 as underdog, and 53-25 at home (68% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BYU | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 77-24 | 84-25 |
| As underdog | 26-33 | 18-28 |
| At home | 60-22 | 53-25 |
| On the road | 49-38 | 51-35 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →