NCAAF
Kentucky
7-0
Tennessee
6-0
Win Probability
Kentucky travels to face Tennessee in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. Kenny Minchey is projected for 180 passing yards against George MacIntyre's 160, but Tennessee's ground game tilts the balance: DeSean Bishop is projected for 85 rushing yards to Jason Patterson's 45. The game turns on whether Kentucky can sustain offensive drives without establishing the run, a constraint the model weights heavily. AccuScore has gone 56% over 77 similar games where the home team carried this level of advantage, though in eight comparable matchups across other programs the favored side won six times. For Kentucky to pull the upset, the Wildcats would need to overcome both their projected offensive limitations and play in the 51% of simulations where the combined output falls short of expectation.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UK ML
UK +180
+0.4% EV
33.2% leads · push 7.8%
theScore Bet ↗
1H TENN ML
TENN -190
-1.1% EV
59.0% leads · push 7.8%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UK +3.5 -106
-1.7% EV
49.7% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
TENN -3.5 -110
-2.0% EV
50.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 -110
-1.1% EV
51.2% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -110
-3.5% EV
48.8% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | TENN | EV | UK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6.5 | -115 | -2.4% | -105 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -6.5 | -115 | -2.4% | -105 | -2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6.5 | -112 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
| Book | TENN | EV | UK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -238 | -1.6% | +195 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -240 | -1.8% | +198 | -2.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -235 | -1.5% | +195 | -2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -245 | -2.1% | +200 | -2.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -240 | -1.8% | +200 | -2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 50.5 | -108 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 50.5 | -112 | -1.5% | -109 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee 68% to beat Kentucky (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tennessee a 68% chance of beating Kentucky, against 32% for Kentucky. Tennessee are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Kentucky (7-1 so far) project to finish 8.9–3.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tennessee (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Kentucky and Tennessee come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Kentucky have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Tennessee have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2011: Kentucky 4, Tennessee 10. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2025, finished Tennessee 34, Kentucky 56.
Kentucky are 46-14 as favourite and 28-68 as underdog, and 22-47 on the road (32% of 69 games, 2011–2026).
Tennessee are 58-24 as favourite and 14-55 as underdog, and 57-34 at home (63% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UK | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 46-14 | 58-24 |
| As underdog | 28-68 | 14-55 |
| At home | 52-41 | 57-34 |
| On the road | 22-47 | 24-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →