NCAAF
Texas A&M
4-0
South Carolina
5-0
Win Probability
South Carolina hosts Texas A&M in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. The game hinges on passing volume: LaNorris Sellers projects for 190 passing yards while Marcel Reed is expected to manage just 170, a gap that reflects how the models see this contest unfolding. South Carolina's ground game, led by Jabree Coleman at 45 rushing yards, should control tempo against Texas A&M's more limited offensive projection. On similar win-probability matchups in the past, AccuScore's model has hit at a 57% rate across 79 graded games. For Texas A&M to pull off the upset, it would need Reed to exceed his projection significantly while the Aggies' defense stifles Sellers and Coleman below their expected outputs.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TA&M ML
TA&M +210
+7.3% EV
34.4% leads · push 8.0%
theScore Bet ↗
1H SC ML
SC -220
-4.1% EV
57.6% leads · push 8.0%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | SC | EV | TA&M | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7 | -112 | -5.6% | -108 | +1.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | +102 | -4.2% | -124 | -0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -7 | -112 | -5.6% | -108 | +1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7 | -115 | -6.1% | -105 | +2.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7.5 | +100 | -4.6% | -120 | +0.1% |
| Book | SC | EV | TA&M | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -290 | -5.6% | +235 | +7.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -265 | -4.5% | +215 | +3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -275 | -5.0% | +225 | +5.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -290 | -5.6% | +230 | +6.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -275 | -5.0% | +225 | +5.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 51.5 | -105 | +0.7% | -115 | -5.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 51.5 | -105 | +0.7% | -112 | -4.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 51.5 | -106 | +0.5% | -113 | -4.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 51.5 | -105 | +0.7% | -115 | -5.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 34.0%
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Carolina 66% to beat Texas A&M (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Carolina the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Carolina a 66% chance of beating Texas A&M, against 34% for Texas A&M. South Carolina are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Texas A&M (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Carolina (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | 5.6–6.4 | 0% | <1% |
| South Carolina | 7.4–4.6 | <1% | 9% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Texas A&M and South Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas A&M have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
South Carolina have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2014: Texas A&M 9, South Carolina 2. The last meeting, on Nov 15, 2025, finished South Carolina 30, Texas A&M 31.
Texas A&M are 81-26 as favourite and 14-35 as underdog, and 33-34 on the road (49% of 67 games, 2011–2026).
South Carolina are 54-19 as favourite and 29-55 as underdog, and 62-32 at home (66% of 94 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TA&M | SC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 81-26 | 54-19 |
| As underdog | 14-35 | 29-55 |
| At home | 66-31 | 62-32 |
| On the road | 33-34 | 28-44 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →