Texas
6-0
Missouri
6-0
Win Probability
Texas travels to Missouri for a matchup between two undefeated teams, with the simulation favoring the Longhorns. Both Arch Manning and Austin Simmons project to 180 passing yards, but Texas's ground game gives it the statistical advantage—Raleek Brown is projected for 65 rushing yards against Jamal Roberts's 65 for Missouri. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore has won 6 of 8 similar matchups. For Missouri to pull the upset at home, it would need to generate explosive plays beyond these projections, as the simulation expects the visiting offense to control the line of scrimmage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TEX ML
TEX -135
+0.2% EV
52.8% leads · push 8.5%
BetMGM ↗
1H MIZ ML
MIZ +124
-2.3% EV
38.8% leads · push 8.5%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TEX -1.5 -105
-0.5% EV
50.7% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
MIZ +1.5 -110
-2.9% EV
49.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 21.5 -105
-1.5% EV
49.6% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 21.5 -112
-2.3% EV
50.4% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | MIZ | EV | TEX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -102 | -3.8% | -118 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | +100 | -3.3% | -122 | -1.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +3 | -115 | -4.1% | -102 | +0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +2.5 | +101 | -3.1% | -122 | -1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +2.5 | +100 | -3.3% | -120 | -1.1% |
| Book | MIZ | EV | TEX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +120 | -4.0% | -142 | -0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +120 | -4.0% | -142 | -0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +120 | -4.0% | -145 | -0.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | +122 | -3.6% | -143 | -0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +120 | -4.0% | -140 | -0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 42.5 | -115 | -1.3% | -105 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 42.5 | -115 | -1.3% | -105 | -3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 42.5 | -112 | -0.7% | -105 | -3.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 43 | -110 | -1.5% | -109 | -2.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.3% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas 58% to beat Missouri (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Missouri a 42% chance of beating Texas, against 58% for Texas. Missouri are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Texas (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.6–3.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 46% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Missouri (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Texas and Missouri come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Missouri have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2011: Texas 1, Missouri 1. The last meeting, on Dec 27, 2017, finished Texas 33, Missouri 16.
Texas are 76-30 as favourite and 20-41 as underdog, and 39-39 on the road (50% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
Missouri are 64-20 as favourite and 24-49 as underdog, and 61-29 at home (68% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TEX | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 76-30 | 64-20 |
| As underdog | 20-41 | 24-49 |
| At home | 70-34 | 61-29 |
| On the road | 39-39 | 34-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →