Vanderbilt
3-0
Mississippi State
4-0
Win Probability
Vanderbilt travels to face Mississippi State in a matchup between undefeated teams, with the simulation favoring the home side clearly. Mississippi State's ground game projects to control tempo, with Kolin Wilson expected to rush for 45 yards and Fluff Bothwell adding 30 more, while Vanderbilt's passing attack centers on Jared Curtis at 180 yards and Junior Sherrill catching 50. The game hinges on whether Vanderbilt's visiting offense can sustain drives against Mississippi State's run-heavy approach. On similar matchups, AccuScore has gone 57% over 79 graded games, producing a -2.6% return. For Vanderbilt to pull the upset, Curtis would need to exceed his projection significantly and force Mississippi State into early third-and-longs.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H VAN ML
VAN +130
-1.4% EV
39.1% leads · push 7.3%
DraftKings ↗
1H MSST ML
MSST -145
-1.1% EV
53.6% leads · push 7.3%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
VAN +2.5 -108
-2.5% EV
49.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
MSST -2.5 -108
-1.2% EV
50.7% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -125
+4.3% EV
60.3% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +105
-9.3% EV
39.7% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | MSST | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3 | -110 | +1.5% | -110 | -5.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | +100 | +1.4% | -128 | -6.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3 | -108 | +1.9% | -110 | -5.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -3 | -110 | +1.5% | -109 | -5.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -130 | -0.2% | +105 | -5.1% |
| Book | MSST | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -155 | +0.4% | +130 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -150 | +1.1% | +125 | -6.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -150 | +1.1% | +125 | -6.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -157 | +0.2% | +132 | -5.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -150 | +1.1% | +130 | -5.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -102 | +7.4% | -118 | -11.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | +5.3% | -110 | -9.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | +6.6% | -115 | -10.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -104 | +6.9% | -115 | -10.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | +6.6% | -115 | -10.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.4%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Mississippi State 61% to beat Vanderbilt (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Mississippi State the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Mississippi State a 61% chance of beating Vanderbilt, against 39% for Vanderbilt. Mississippi State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Vanderbilt (3-5 so far) project to finish 3.9–8.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Mississippi State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.3–5.7 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | 3.9–8.1 | 0% | 0% |
| Mississippi State | 6.3–5.7 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Vanderbilt and Mississippi State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vanderbilt have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Mississippi State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Vanderbilt are 34-14 as favourite and 25-82 as underdog, and 23-51 on the road (31% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 34-14 | — |
| As underdog | 25-82 | — |
| At home | 40-49 | — |
| On the road | 23-51 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →