NCAAF
Georgia
7-0
Ole Miss
6-0
Win Probability
Georgia travels to Oxford to face Ole Miss in a matchup of unbeaten teams where the simulation leans slightly toward the Bulldogs. The game hinges on passing volume: Trinidad Chambliss projects for 220 passing yards against Gunner Stockton at 200, a narrow margin that could tip the balance in a contest expected to be decided by fewer than two points. Dwight Phillips Jr. figures to generate 55 rushing yards, the game's most productive ground effort by either side's lead back. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one—slight away lean in a close matchup—stands at 36% over 81 prior contests. For Ole Miss to pull the upset at home, the Rebels would need production beyond their projected air-game efficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UGA ML
UGA -135
-2.7% EV
50.1% leads · push 7.4%
BetMGM ↗
1H MISS ML
MISS +124
+1.3% EV
42.5% leads · push 7.4%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UGA -1.5 -108
-3.5% EV
48.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
MISS +1.5 -110
-0.6% EV
51.7% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 28.5 -102
+0.5% EV
51.0% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 28.5 -110
-3.2% EV
49.0% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | MISS | EV | UGA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +3.5 | -112 | +1.6% | -108 | -6.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +3.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +3.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -108 | -6.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | +3.5 | -114 | +1.1% | -105 | -5.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +3.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
| Book | MISS | EV | UGA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +145 | +3.9% | -175 | -6.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +142 | +3.2% | -172 | -5.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +145 | +3.9% | -175 | -6.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | +144 | +3.7% | -170 | -5.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +150 | +5.0% | -175 | -6.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 56.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -110 | -6.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 56.5 | -114 | +1.0% | -106 | -5.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 56.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -108 | -6.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 56.5 | -112 | +1.4% | -112 | -6.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 56.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -110 | -6.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 44.0%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia 56% to beat Ole Miss (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ole Miss a 44% chance of beating Georgia, against 56% for Georgia. Ole Miss are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Georgia (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.0–2.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ole Miss (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.0–3.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 50% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Georgia and Ole Miss come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Ole Miss have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2011: Georgia 3, Ole Miss 2. The last meeting, on Dec 31, 2025, finished Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34.
Georgia are 120-23 as favourite and 9-14 as underdog, and 58-16 on the road (78% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
Ole Miss are 61-21 as favourite and 18-49 as underdog, and 50-33 at home (60% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UGA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 120-23 | 61-21 |
| As underdog | 9-14 | 18-49 |
| At home | 79-22 | 50-33 |
| On the road | 58-16 | 29-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →