Alabama
6-0
LSU
6-0
Win Probability
# Alabama @ LSU Game Preview Two undefeated teams meet in Baton Rouge with the simulation favoring LSU. The game hinges on passing efficiency: Keelon Russell projects to 200 yards for Alabama, while Sam Leavitt reaches the same mark for the home side, but LSU's receiving corps spreads the ball further, with Jackson Harris projected for 50 yards against Alabama's Rico Scott at 40. AccuScore's historical record on games shaped like this one stands at 56% over 77 graded contests. Alabama would need to impose its ground game—Trae'shawn Brown is projected for just 45 rushing yards—and force LSU into uncomfortable situations to overturn the home-team lean.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ALA ML
ALA +160
+2.1% EV
37.2% leads · push 7.4%
betPARX ↗
1H LSU ML
LSU -185
-3.6% EV
55.4% leads · push 7.4%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
ALA +3.5 -110
+0.1% EV
52.5% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
LSU -3.5 -105
-3.6% EV
47.5% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -120
-1.3% EV
53.1% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 +100
-3.1% EV
46.9% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | LSU | EV | ALA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5.5 | -108 | -4.2% | -110 | +0.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -5.5 | -109 | -4.4% | -110 | +0.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -105 | -3.6% | -115 | -1.0% |
| Book | LSU | EV | ALA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -225 | -4.1% | +185 | +1.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -210 | -3.1% | +172 | -0.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -225 | -4.1% | +188 | +2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -218 | -3.6% | +182 | +1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -210 | -3.1% | +175 | +0.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -108 | +1.6% | -112 | -6.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 52.5 | -108 | +1.6% | -110 | -5.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 52.5 | -106 | +2.1% | -113 | -6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 36.4%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes LSU 64% to beat Alabama (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes LSU the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives LSU a 64% chance of beating Alabama, against 36% for Alabama. LSU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Alabama (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.1–2.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 55% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
LSU (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.7–3.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 48% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Alabama and LSU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Alabama have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
LSU have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Alabama 10, LSU 3. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2024, finished Alabama 42, LSU 13.
Alabama are 140-22 as favourite and 7-2 as underdog, and 59-15 on the road (80% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
LSU are 93-24 as favourite and 17-23 as underdog, and 77-21 at home (79% of 98 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 140-22 | 93-24 |
| As underdog | 7-2 | 17-23 |
| At home | 93-12 | 77-21 |
| On the road | 59-15 | 39-29 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →