NCAAF
Oklahoma
4-0
Florida
5-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Oklahoma travels to face undefeated Florida, with the simulation favoring the home side clearly. The game turns on offensive efficiency: Oklahoma's John Mateer projects to just 180 passing yards while Florida's Tramell Jones Jr. is expected around 140, yet the Gators' ground game—Jadan Baugh at 55 rushing yards—offers a more balanced attack than Lloyd Avant's projected 45 yards. AccuScore's model has gone 57 percent on similar home-team calls across 79 graded games, a modest but positive track record. For Oklahoma to pull the upset, the Sooners would need to sustain drives through the air while containing Florida's rushing attack.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H OU ML
OU +170
+0.1% EV
34.4% leads · push 7.5%
theScore Bet ↗
1H FLA ML
FLA -190
-1.9% EV
58.1% leads · push 7.5%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
OU +3.5 -112
-2.3% EV
50.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
FLA -3.5 -105
-1.5% EV
49.6% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -102
-0.2% EV
50.3% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 -110
-2.5% EV
49.7% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | FLA | EV | OU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -6.5 | -105 | -3.3% | -115 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6 | -110 | -2.6% | -108 | -1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6.5 | -105 | -3.3% | -114 | -1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6.5 | -105 | -3.3% | -115 | -1.2% |
| Book | FLA | EV | OU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -238 | -2.6% | +195 | -0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -215 | -1.1% | +180 | -3.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -235 | -2.5% | +190 | -1.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -245 | -3.0% | +200 | -0.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -225 | -1.8% | +190 | -1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 44.5 | -115 | +1.3% | -105 | -6.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 44.5 | -118 | +0.7% | -104 | -5.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 44.5 | -112 | +1.9% | -105 | -6.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 44.5 | -116 | +1.1% | -103 | -5.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | +0.2% | -110 | -4.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida 67% to beat Oklahoma (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida a 67% chance of beating Oklahoma, against 33% for Oklahoma. Florida are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oklahoma (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.7–6.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oklahoma and Florida come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oklahoma have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Florida have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Oklahoma are 120-29 as favourite and 12-11 as underdog, and 58-22 on the road (73% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
Florida are 72-27 as favourite and 19-40 as underdog, and 59-30 at home (66% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | OU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 120-29 | 72-27 |
| As underdog | 12-11 | 19-40 |
| At home | 77-23 | 59-30 |
| On the road | 58-22 | 36-40 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →