Arkansas
3-0
Auburn
4-0
Win Probability
Auburn hosts an Arkansas team that arrives undefeated, but the simulation favors the Tigers decisively. Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown projects for 180 passing yards against an Arkansas defense that will ask KJ Jackson to operate from behind, with the visitor's passing attack centered on limited volume. The game turns on whether Arkansas can sustain drives despite projecting for only 170 passing yards and 35 rushing yards from Braylen Russell [ARK]—Auburn's margin comes from efficiency rather than volume. On similar matchups, AccuScore's model won seven of eight graded games. Arkansas would need to flip the script on efficiency and keep Auburn's offense off the field, a tall order when the home team's projection assumes control of time of possession.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ARK ML
ARK +240
-2.2% EV
26.1% leads · push 7.0%
DraftKings ↗
1H AUB ML
AUB -275
-0.8% EV
67.0% leads · push 7.0%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
ARK +6.5 +100
-0.5% EV
49.5% covers
Fanatics ↗
1H Spread
AUB -6.5 -110
-1.8% EV
50.5% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -120
-4.8% EV
49.3% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 +102
+1.2% EV
50.7% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | AUB | EV | ARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10.5 | -115 | -2.7% | -105 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -1.7% | -108 | -2.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -10.5 | -114 | -2.5% | -105 | -1.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -10.5 | -115 | -2.7% | -105 | -1.8% |
| Book | AUB | EV | ARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -410 | -2.2% | +320 | -1.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -400 | -2.0% | +310 | -2.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -425 | -2.6% | +320 | -1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -420 | -2.5% | +330 | -0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -425 | -2.6% | +320 | -1.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -5.0% | -115 | +0.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -106 | -5.2% | -114 | +0.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -5.0% | -112 | +1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 52.5 | -102 | -4.3% | -118 | -0.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Auburn 77% to beat Arkansas (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Auburn the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Auburn a 77% chance of beating Arkansas, against 23% for Arkansas. Auburn are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Arkansas (3-5 so far) project to finish 3.6–8.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Auburn (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.4–5.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Arkansas and Auburn come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arkansas have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Auburn have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2011: Arkansas 6, Auburn 8. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2025, finished Auburn 24, Arkansas 33.
Arkansas are 39-19 as favourite and 21-74 as underdog, and 16-52 on the road (24% of 68 games, 2011–2026).
Auburn are 66-25 as favourite and 19-52 as underdog, and 66-37 at home (64% of 103 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 39-19 | 66-25 |
| As underdog | 21-74 | 19-52 |
| At home | 48-45 | 66-37 |
| On the road | 16-52 | 22-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →