Virginia Tech
6-0
SMU
6-0
Win Probability
Unbeaten Virginia Tech travels to face unbeaten SMU in a matchup the simulation favours decisively to the home side. The Mustangs' passing game centers on Kevin Jennings, projected for 200 yards, while Kendrick Raphael anchors their ground attack at 80 rushing yards; Virginia Tech counters with Ethan Grunkemeyer also at 200 passing yards but Jeffrey Overton Jr. limited to 50 on the ground. The game turns on SMU's ability to run the ball and control pace against a Virginia Tech defence that the model expects to keep the Hokies' rushing attack in check. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one—home favourites in the 70-80% win probability band—stands at 62% over 65 graded contests. For Virginia Tech to upset, the Hokies' passing attack would need to sustain drives that SMU's defence cannot disrupt.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H VT ML
VT +176
-0.1% EV
33.7% leads · push 7.0%
FanDuel ↗
1H SMU ML
SMU -180
-0.3% EV
59.3% leads · push 7.0%
Hard Rock Bet ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
VT +3.5 -102
-1.8% EV
48.6% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
SMU -3.5 -110
-1.0% EV
51.3% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -117
-1.8% EV
52.0% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -102
-2.5% EV
48.0% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | SMU | EV | VT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6 | -110 | +1.0% | -110 | -5.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -5.5 | -118 | +0.7% | -104 | -5.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6 | -110 | +1.0% | -108 | -5.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6 | -109 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -115 | +1.3% | -105 | -6.0% |
| Book | SMU | EV | VT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -225 | -0.2% | +185 | -5.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -215 | +0.5% | +176 | -7.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -225 | -0.2% | +185 | -5.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -225 | -0.2% | +185 | -5.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -210 | +0.9% | +175 | -7.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 56.5 | -108 | -1.9% | -112 | -2.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 56.5 | -108 | -1.9% | -112 | -2.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 56.5 | -108 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 56.5 | -112 | -2.7% | -109 | -2.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 56.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.9%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes SMU 69% to beat Virginia Tech (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes SMU the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives SMU a 69% chance of beating Virginia Tech, against 31% for Virginia Tech. SMU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Virginia Tech (6-2 so far) project to finish 7.9–4.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
SMU (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.0–4.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | 7.9–4.1 | <1% | 2% |
| SMU | 8.0–4.0 | <1% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Virginia Tech and SMU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Virginia Tech have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
SMU have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Virginia Tech are 62-40 as favourite and 22-39 as underdog, and 42-41 on the road (51% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
SMU are 57-13 as favourite and 21-66 as underdog, and 49-32 at home (60% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VT | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 62-40 | 57-13 |
| As underdog | 22-39 | 21-66 |
| At home | 45-42 | 49-32 |
| On the road | 42-41 | 36-49 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →