NFL • Fri, Nov 6, 01:15
Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens in a matchup where the simulation strongly favours the visitors. Trevor Lawrence projects for 240 passing yards, well above Joe Fagnano's 170, while Bhayshul Tuten is expected to generate 85 yards from scrimmage against a Ravens defence that may struggle to contain Jacksonville's attack. The game hinges on whether Baltimore can establish Derrick Henry as a consistent threat—his 75 projected yards would be critical to keeping pace—but the model sees Jacksonville pulling away.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2 so far) project to finish 12.0–5.0 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Baltimore Ravens (4-4 so far) project to finish 7.6–9.4 and make the playoffs in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 12.0–5.0 | 87% | 93% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7.6–9.4 | 4% | 19% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
NFL
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville Jaguars 80% to beat Baltimore Ravens (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville Jaguars the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Baltimore Ravens a 20% chance of beating Jacksonville Jaguars, against 80% for Jacksonville Jaguars. Baltimore Ravens are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Jacksonville Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Baltimore Ravens have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2011: Jacksonville Jaguars 4, Baltimore Ravens 4. The last meeting, on Dec 17, 2023, finished Baltimore Ravens 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 7.
Jacksonville Jaguars are 40-29 as favourite and 49-139 as underdog, and 34-93 on the road (27% of 127 games, 2011–2026).
Baltimore Ravens are 133-62 as favourite and 28-47 as underdog, and 88-45 at home (66% of 133 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | JAX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 40-29 | 133-62 |
| As underdog | 49-139 | 28-47 |
| At home | 56-75 | 88-45 |
| On the road | 34-93 | 73-64 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →