James Madison
7-0
Southern Miss
3-0
Win Probability
James Madison travels to Southern Miss in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Dukes. Camden Coleman projects to 190 passing yards for the visitors, while Landry Lyddy sits at 180 for the hosts—a narrow margin that belies James Madison's overall advantage. The game hinges on whether Southern Miss can generate consistent rushing production; Steven Robinson and Jamarice Wilder are projected for just 60 combined yards on the ground. AccuScore's model has backed the away side in games shaped like this one 63% of the time across 40 graded contests. For Southern Miss to stay competitive, the ground game would need to outpace those projections substantially.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H JMU ML
JMU -450
-2.9% EV
72.1% leads · push 6.1%
BetMGM ↗
1H USM ML
USM +370
+4.3% EV
21.8% leads · push 6.1%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
JMU -9.5 -108
-3.8% EV
48.0% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
USM +9.5 -105
+0.8% EV
52.0% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 30.5 -105
+0.6% EV
51.8% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 30.5 -108
-3.6% EV
48.1% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | USM | EV | JMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +14.5 | -112 | -3.9% | -108 | -0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +14.5 | -108 | -3.1% | -112 | -1.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -108 | -0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +14.5 | -108 | -3.1% | -112 | -1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Book | USM | EV | JMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +470 | -1.8% | -650 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +480 | -1.0% | -650 | -2.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +475 | -1.4% | -625 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | +475 | -1.4% | -675 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +425 | -5.6% | -650 | -2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 58.5 | -105 | +3.5% | -115 | -7.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 58.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 58.5 | -105 | +3.5% | -115 | -7.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 58 | -110 | +3.5% | -109 | -7.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 58.5 | -105 | +3.5% | -115 | -7.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.2%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes James Madison 83% to beat Southern Miss (17%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes James Madison the more likely winner at 83%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Southern Miss a 17% chance of beating James Madison, against 83% for James Madison. Southern Miss are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
James Madison (7-2 so far) project to finish 9.3–2.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Southern Miss (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.0–8.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 9.3–2.7 | 59% | 3% |
| Southern Miss | 4.0–8.0 | 1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How James Madison and Southern Miss come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
James Madison have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Southern Miss have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: James Madison 1, Southern Miss 0. The last meeting, on Oct 26, 2024, finished Southern Miss 15, James Madison 32.
Southern Miss are 39-24 as favourite and 19-65 as underdog, and 28-43 at home (39% of 71 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | JMU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 39-24 |
| As underdog | — | 19-65 |
| At home | — | 28-43 |
| On the road | — | 30-54 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →