UTSA
7-0
Florida Atlantic
5-0
Win Probability
UTSA travels to face Florida Atlantic in a clash between undefeated teams where the simulation favours the Roadrunners clearly. The game hinges on quarterback play: Owen McCown projects for 230 passing yards while Caden Veltkamp is expected to reach 250, a gap that widens when accounting for UTSA's Will Henderson III potentially gaining 70 rushing yards against what shapes as a more pass-dependent Owls attack. AccuScore's model has hit at 51% across 61 games with this win-probability shape, though in eight comparable spots the favoured side won seven times. For Florida Atlantic to pull the upset at home, it would need to generate consistent offensive rhythm despite the projection advantage tilting toward UTSA's ground game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UTSA ML
UTSA -185
-1.0% EV
58.8% leads · push 7.4%
BetMGM ↗
1H FAU ML
FAU +170
-0.7% EV
33.8% leads · push 7.4%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UTSA -3.5 -110
-0.6% EV
51.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
FAU +3.5 -107
-3.3% EV
48.2% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Total
O 36.5 -108
-0.5% EV
51.4% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 36.5 -104
-2.4% EV
48.6% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | FAU | EV | UTSA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +7 | -115 | -3.4% | -105 | -0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +6.5 | -102 | -2.5% | -120 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +7 | -110 | -2.4% | -108 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | +7 | -115 | -3.4% | -105 | -0.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +6.5 | -105 | -3.1% | -115 | -1.4% |
| Book | FAU | EV | UTSA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +215 | -1.6% | -265 | -2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +202 | -3.6% | -245 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +210 | -2.4% | -275 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +215 | -1.6% | -265 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +220 | -0.9% | -270 | -2.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 72.5 | -115 | -1.4% | -105 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 73.5 | -106 | -1.7% | -114 | -2.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 72.5 | -112 | -0.7% | -105 | -3.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 72.5 | -109 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 72.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UTSA 69% to beat Florida Atlantic (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UTSA the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida Atlantic a 31% chance of beating UTSA, against 69% for UTSA. Florida Atlantic are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UTSA (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.8–2.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida Atlantic (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 9.8–2.2 | 45% | 11% |
| Florida Atlantic | 6.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UTSA and Florida Atlantic come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UTSA have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Florida Atlantic have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2014: UTSA 1, Florida Atlantic 3. The last meeting, on Oct 19, 2024, finished Florida Atlantic 24, UTSA 38.
UTSA are 49-17 as favourite and 22-58 as underdog, and 34-47 on the road (42% of 81 games, 2012–2026).
Florida Atlantic are 45-22 as favourite and 17-68 as underdog, and 40-35 at home (53% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UTSA | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 49-17 | 45-22 |
| As underdog | 22-58 | 17-68 |
| At home | 43-31 | 40-35 |
| On the road | 34-47 | 23-64 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →