Toledo
6-0
Sacramento State
2-0
Win Probability
Toledo's visit to Sacramento State pits an undefeated Rockets team against the Hornets in a game where the simulation strongly favours the visitors. John Alan Richter projects to 210 passing yards, and CJ Miller is expected to rush for 80, giving Toledo multiple avenues to attack. Sacramento State's offence centres on Jackson Sharman and his projected 150 passing yards, a significant gap that defines this matchup. On similar games with this probability shape, AccuScore's model has won 7 of 8. For Sacramento State to pull the upset, Sharman would need to operate at well above his projection while forcing Toledo's offence into mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TOL ML
TOL -1200
-1.3% EV
86.5% leads · push 3.8%
DraftKings ↗
1H SAC ML
SAC +980
9.7% leads · push 3.8%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TOL -14.5 -104
-5.1% EV
45.8% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
SAC +14.5 -115
+0.7% EV
54.2% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 29.5 -110
-3.6% EV
48.6% over
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
U 29.5 -120
-2.9% EV
51.4% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | SAC | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +25.5 | -112 | -1.2% | -108 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +25.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +25.5 | -112 | -1.2% | -108 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +25.5 | -113 | -1.4% | -106 | -3.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +25.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
| Book | SAC | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1300 | -12.2% | -2800 | -1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1400 | -9.5% | -3500 | -1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1550 | -5.4% | -3000 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +1300 | -12.2% | -3500 | -1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +1300 | -12.2% | -4000 | -1.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -115 | +3.0% | -105 | -7.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -105 | +2.8% | -115 | -7.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | +2.1% | -110 | -6.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 53.5 | -106 | +2.6% | -114 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | +1.6% | -110 | -6.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo 95% to beat Sacramento State (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sacramento State a 5% chance of beating Toledo, against 95% for Toledo. Sacramento State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Toledo (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.1–2.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sacramento State (2-7 so far) project to finish 2.2–9.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 9.1–2.9 | 40% | 2% |
| Sacramento State | 2.2–9.8 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Toledo and Sacramento State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toledo have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Sacramento State have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Toledo are 86-27 as favourite and 13-29 as underdog, and 48-39 on the road (55% of 87 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TOL | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 86-27 | — |
| As underdog | 13-29 | — |
| At home | 56-22 | — |
| On the road | 48-39 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →