Ball State
3-0
Massachusetts
4-0
Win Probability
Massachusetts hosts Ball State in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side. Keldric Luster projects for 160 passing yards and will need to move the ball efficiently; Massachusetts counters with Elijah Faulkner expected to contribute 50 rushing yards in a game that hinges on Ball State's ability to generate explosive plays through the air. The game tightens around whether Ball State's passing attack can keep pace with a Massachusetts offense that spreads scoring opportunities across multiple receivers. AccuScore's historical record on games shaped this way—home favorite with a moderate lean—stands at 56% across 77 similar calls. Ball State reaches the upset if Luster connects on deep shots and the Cardinals' receiving corps, led by Jabari Lewis at 40 projected yards, fails to sustain drives.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H BALL ML
BALL +135
-0.4% EV
38.7% leads · push 8.1%
theScore Bet ↗
1H MASS ML
MASS -145
-1.0% EV
53.1% leads · push 8.1%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
BALL +2.5 -108
-1.8% EV
50.1% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Spread
MASS -2.5 -108
-1.9% EV
49.9% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 -102
-1.1% EV
49.4% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -112
-2.1% EV
50.6% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | MASS | EV | BALL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | -104 | +0.1% | -118 | -4.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -3.5 | -103 | +0.3% | -116 | -4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -3.5 | +100 | +1.0% | -120 | -5.1% |
| Book | MASS | EV | BALL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -170 | -2.0% | +142 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -166 | -1.5% | +138 | -3.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -165 | -1.4% | +140 | -2.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -162 | -1.1% | +138 | -3.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -165 | -1.4% | +140 | -2.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 49.5 | -112 | -1.5% | -108 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 49.5 | -112 | -1.5% | -105 | -2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 49.5 | -112 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.0%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Massachusetts 61% to beat Ball State (40%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Massachusetts the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Massachusetts a 61% chance of beating Ball State, against 40% for Ball State. Massachusetts are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Ball State (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.4–7.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Massachusetts (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | 4.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% |
| Massachusetts | 6.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Ball State and Massachusetts come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Ball State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Massachusetts have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2014: Ball State 1, Massachusetts 1. The last meeting, on Oct 31, 2015, finished Massachusetts 10, Ball State 20.
Ball State are 33-17 as favourite and 24-74 as underdog, and 28-60 on the road (32% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
Massachusetts are 6-8 as favourite and 11-84 as underdog, and 9-42 at home (18% of 51 games, 2012–2026).
| Record | BALL | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 33-17 | 6-8 |
| As underdog | 24-74 | 11-84 |
| At home | 32-37 | 9-42 |
| On the road | 28-60 | 8-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →