NFL
Final · NE 24–19 MIA ·
New England Patriots
5-3
24
Miami Dolphins
1-6
19
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MIA | EV | NE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +7 | -110 | +4.9% | -110 | -9.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +7.5 | -128 | +3.6% | +104 | -9.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +7 | -105 | +6.1% | -105 | -8.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +7 | -117 | +3.4% | -104 | -8.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +7 | -115 | +3.8% | -105 | -8.3% |
| Book | MIA | EV | NE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +275 | +7.2% | -345 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +290 | +9.5% | -360 | -5.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +280 | +8.0% | -350 | -5.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +280 | +8.0% | -345 | -5.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +290 | +9.5% | -380 | -6.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 41.5 | -108 | -1.5% | -112 | -3.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 41.5 | -108 | -1.5% | -112 | -3.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 41.5 | -108 | -1.5% | -110 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 41 | -113 | -0.9% | -108 | -3.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 41.5 | -105 | -0.8% | -115 | -3.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| MIA | 3 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
Andy Borregales 34 Yd Field Goal
NE
3–0
Zane Gonzalez 31 Yd Field Goal
MIA
3–3
Zane Gonzalez 52 Yd Field Goal
MIA
3–6
Malik Washington 1 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Zane Gonzalez Kick)
MIA
3–13
Kyle Williams 43 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)
NE
10–13
Drake Maye 2 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)
NE
17–13
DeMario Douglas 48 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)
NE
24–13
Kevin Coleman Jr. 35 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
MIA
24–19
| NE | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | SCK | RATING | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 16/20 | 199 | 10.0 | 2 | 0 | 3-17 | 141.5 | 0 |
| MIA | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | SCK | RATING | 2PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 21/32 | 211 | 6.6 | 2 | 1 | 5-16 | 92.1 | 0 |
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Attendance
59,023
Where to Bet
goldWin probability: 54.6%
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AccuScore's simulation makes New England Patriots 69% to beat Miami Dolphins (31%). Final score: New England Patriots 24, Miami Dolphins 19.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New England Patriots the more likely winner at 69%. The game finished New England Patriots 24, Miami Dolphins 19.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami Dolphins a 31% chance of beating New England Patriots, against 69% for New England Patriots. It finished Miami Dolphins 19, New England Patriots 24.
New England Patriots (5-3 so far) project to finish 10.2–6.8 and make the playoffs in 74% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Miami Dolphins (1-6 so far) project to finish 4.6–12.4 and make the playoffs in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 10.2–6.8 | 27% | 74% |
| Miami Dolphins | 4.6–12.4 | <1% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New England Patriots have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Miami Dolphins have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 30 times since 2011: New England Patriots 16, Miami Dolphins 14. The last meeting, on Jan 4, 2026, finished Miami Dolphins 10, New England Patriots 38.
New England Patriots are 152-50 as favourite and 27-49 as underdog, and 80-54 on the road (60% of 134 games, 2011–2026).
Miami Dolphins are 63-30 as favourite and 54-107 as underdog, and 73-53 at home (58% of 126 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 152-50 | 63-30 |
| As underdog | 27-49 | 54-107 |
| At home | 100-45 | 73-53 |
| On the road | 80-54 | 45-84 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →