Utah State
1-0
Boise State
3-0
Win Probability
Projected score
16.4 – 32.6
Boise State hosts Utah State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home team. The game hinges on Utah State's passing game: both Anthony Garcia and Bryson Barnes project to have only a 42% chance of exceeding 100 passing yards, a critical constraint for a visiting offense. On the flip side, Maddux Madsen has a 53% chance of surpassing 270 passing yards at home. AccuScore's model has historically converted similar high-confidence home favorites at a 64% clip across 39 graded games. For Utah State to pull the upset, its ground game would need to dominate: Javen Jacobs carries a 49% chance of breaking 115 rushing yards.
| Book | Line | BOI | EV | UTA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -18.5 | -110 | — | -110 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -18.5 | -110 | — | -110 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -18.5 | -108 | — | -110 | — |
| Book | BOI | EV | UTA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1450 | -4.4% | +850 | +18.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1450 | -4.4% | +860 | +19.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1200 | -3.7% | +850 | +18.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 51.5 | -108 | -11.9% | -112 | +7.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | -12.2% | -110 | +7.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 51.5 | -108 | -11.9% | -110 | +7.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 60.5%
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State 85% to beat Utah State (14%). Projected score: Utah State 16.4, Boise State 32.6.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State the more likely winner at 85%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boise State a 85% chance of beating Utah State, against 14% for Utah State. Boise State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Utah State 16.4, Boise State 32.6.