California
2-0
UNLV
2-0
Win Probability
Projected score
22.9 – 27.4
California visits UNLV in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side clearly. JaronKeawe Sagapolutele projects as a modest passing threat at 54% to exceed 280 yards, while Jai'Den Thomas has a coin-flip probability of surpassing 140 rushing yards—the game hinges on whether UNLV's ground game can establish itself. Ian Strong sits at 49% to clear 90 receiving yards, representing the visitors' primary path to keeping pace. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's model won 53% of the time over 68 graded contests. California would need to neutralize the UNLV run and force Sagapolutele into volume passing to pull off the upset.
| Book | Line | UNLV | EV | CAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2.5 | -118 | — | -102 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -112 | — | -104 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2.5 | -115 | — | -105 | — |
| Book | UNLV | EV | CAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -142 | +2.9% | +120 | -8.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -134 | +4.2% | +112 | -9.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -145 | +2.5% | +120 | -8.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -13.4% | -110 | +8.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -118 | -11.5% | -104 | +7.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -13.4% | -108 | +9.4% |
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV 62% to beat California (38%). Projected score: California 22.9, UNLV 27.4.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UNLV a 62% chance of beating California, against 38% for California. UNLV are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects California 22.9, UNLV 27.4.