Bowling Green
0-0
Miami (OH)
2-0
Win Probability
Projected score
16.6 – 26.8
Bowling Green travels to Miami in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Thomas Gotkowski [Miami (OH)] projects to exceed 220 passing yards with 53% probability, while Lynel BillupsWilliams [Miami (OH)] has a 45% chance of surpassing 55 receiving yards. The game hinges on total points: the simulation puts the combined score over the market line at exactly 51%, meaning a close call on offensive execution will determine whether this stays low or breaks higher. AccuScore's model has graded 63 similar games—those where it backed the home team with 70-80% confidence—and won 60% of them at minus 4.8% return. For Bowling Green to pull the upset, its defense would need to limit Miami (OH)'s passing game well below Gotkowski's projection.
| Book | Line | (OH | EV | GRE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -13.5 | -110 | — | -110 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -13.5 | -105 | — | -115 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -13.5 | -108 | — | -110 | — |
| Book | (OH | EV | GRE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -550 | -4.9% | +410 | +10.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -550 | -4.9% | +400 | +9.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -550 | -4.9% | +425 | +11.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 43.5 | -105 | -4.0% | -115 | -0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -4.3% | -110 | -0.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -4.3% | -108 | +0.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 23.6%
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami (OH) 76% to beat Bowling Green (24%). Projected score: Bowling Green 16.6, Miami (OH) 26.8.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami (OH) the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami (OH) a 76% chance of beating Bowling Green, against 24% for Bowling Green. Miami (OH) are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Bowling Green 16.6, Miami (OH) 26.8.