Toledo
3-0
Ball State
1-0
Win Probability
Projected score
34.7 – 11.4
Toledo arrives in Muncie heavily favored, with AccuScore's simulation strongly backing the Rockets. The contest hinges on passing production: John Alan Richter has a 49% chance to exceed 250 yards, while Tyler Mizzell reaches 220 in 54% of outcomes, suggesting both offences will need to execute through the air. Connor Walendzak projects a 48% chance at over 140 receiving yards. In eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, the favored side went 8-0. Ball State would need a defensive effort well above these baselines to pull the upset at home.
| Book | Line | BAL | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +20.5 | -108 | -1.9% | -112 | -2.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +20.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +20.5 | -108 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Book | BAL | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +800 | -21.2% | -1350 | +0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +800 | -21.2% | -1400 | +0.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +850 | -19.6% | -1200 | +0.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -108 | -19.2% | -112 | +14.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -115 | -19.7% | -105 | +15.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -18.8% | -112 | +14.4% |
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo 94% to beat Ball State (6%). Projected score: Toledo 34.7, Ball State 11.4.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ball State a 6% chance of beating Toledo, against 94% for Toledo. Ball State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Toledo 34.7, Ball State 11.4.