Michigan State
2-0
Wisconsin
3-0
Win Probability
Projected score
21.2 – 27.4
Wisconsin hosts Michigan State in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the Badgers. Alessio Milivojevic projects to surpass 250 passing yards with 53% likelihood, while Wisconsin's passing attack leans on Eugene Hilton Jr., who has a 50% chance to exceed 35 receiving yards. The game hinges on whether Michigan State can establish consistent offensive rhythm on the road; the visitor's ground game is projected as marginal, with Cam Edwards carrying just a 45% probability of breaking 20 rushing yards. AccuScore's simulation model has won 53% of its calls on home-favored matchups shaped this way over 68 graded games, returning -8.8%. For Michigan State to pull the upset, they would need Milivojevic to operate efficiently enough to compensate for struggles in the run game.
| Book | Line | WIS | EV | MIC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9.5 | -115 | — | -105 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -118 | — | -104 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -9.5 | -112 | — | -105 | — |
| Book | WIS | EV | MIC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -380 | -7.4% | +300 | +15.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -420 | -8.3% | +320 | +18.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -375 | -7.3% | +310 | +16.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | +8.8% | -110 | -13.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | +8.8% | -110 | -13.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 43.5 | -108 | +9.3% | -110 | -13.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 61.1%
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin 67% to beat Michigan State (33%). Projected score: Michigan State 21.2, Wisconsin 27.4.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wisconsin a 67% chance of beating Michigan State, against 33% for Michigan State. Wisconsin are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Michigan State 21.2, Wisconsin 27.4.