Michigan
3-0
Minnesota
3-0
Win Probability
Projected score
28.9 – 19.6
Michigan travels to Minnesota with both teams undefeated, and the simulation decisively favours the visiting Wolverines. The game turns on Minnesota's passing attack: Drake Lindsey has only a 50% chance of surpassing 210 yards, while his receivers—Perry Thompson and Kaden Helms among them—sit around 46% to exceed 35 yards each. Michigan's ground game presents a clearer threat, with Jordan Marshall at 46% to rush for more than 125 yards. AccuScore's model has gone 7-1 on eight comparable matchups in the past. For Minnesota to pull off the upset, it would need to sustain consistent yardage gains on the perimeter rather than rely on a dominant passing performance.
| Book | Line | MIN | EV | MIC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +6 | -112 | -3.0% | -108 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +6 | -110 | -2.6% | -108 | -1.6% |
| Book | MIN | EV | MIC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +185 | -12.8% | -225 | +3.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +176 | -14.0% | -215 | +4.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +185 | -12.8% | -225 | +3.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 43.5 | -108 | +8.3% | -112 | -12.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 43.5 | -108 | +8.3% | -112 | -12.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 43.5 | -108 | +8.3% | -110 | -12.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 60.5%
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan 74% to beat Minnesota (26%). Projected score: Michigan 28.9, Minnesota 19.6.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Michigan the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota a 26% chance of beating Michigan, against 74% for Michigan. Minnesota are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Michigan 28.9, Minnesota 19.6.