Ohio State
3-0
Iowa
4-0
Win Probability
Projected score
31.5 – 14.8
Ohio State travels to Iowa as a heavy favourite in this matchup between undefeated teams. The simulation leans decisively toward the Buckeyes, who project to control the passing game through Julian Sayin with a 51% chance of exceeding 360 yards, while Jeremiah Smith has a 48% chance of surpassing 115 receiving yards. Iowa's passing attack, led by Jeremy Hecklinski, faces a steeper hill at just a 50% chance to reach 130 yards, which captures the gulf between these offences. On similar game shapes across eight other matchups, AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8, a perfect record that underscores how lopsided this projection is. For Iowa to pull off the upset, the Hawkeyes would need Hecklinski to operate far above his projected efficiency and keep Ohio State's receivers in check.
| Book | Line | Iowa | EV | OHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +14 | -108 | -2.1% | -112 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +14.5 | -118 | -4.1% | -104 | -0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +14 | -108 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.0% |
| Book | Iowa | EV | OHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +455 | -22.2% | -625 | +2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +470 | -21.5% | -670 | +1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +475 | -21.2% | -625 | +2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | -4.4% | -110 | -0.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | -4.4% | -110 | -0.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | -4.4% | -108 | +0.3% |
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State 90% to beat Iowa (10%). Projected score: Ohio State 31.5, Iowa 14.8.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Iowa a 10% chance of beating Ohio State, against 90% for Ohio State. Iowa are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Ohio State 31.5, Iowa 14.8.