NCAAF
West Virginia
3-0
Iowa State
2-0
Win Probability
Projected score
24.5 – 28.7
West Virginia travels to Iowa State as a 3-0 team facing a 2-0 home side that the simulation favours clearly. The game turns on quarterback play and efficiency: Michael Hawkins Jr. has a 48% chance of exceeding 220 passing yards, while Iowa State's ability to limit explosive plays will determine whether it can protect its advantage. Jaden Bray projects a 48% chance of surpassing 70 receiving yards, suggesting the visitors will need to move the ball vertically to stay competitive. AccuScore's record on home-favourites in this win-probability range stands at 53% across 68 prior games. For West Virginia to pull the upset, it would need Hawkins Jr. to operate with precision while preventing Iowa State from establishing early control.
| Book | Line | IOW | EV | VIR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3 | -120 | — | +100 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -122 | — | +102 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3 | -115 | — | -105 | — |
| Book | IOW | EV | VIR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -155 | +1.2% | +130 | -6.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -152 | +1.6% | +126 | -7.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -155 | +1.2% | +130 | -6.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | -5.7% | -112 | +1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -118 | -4.1% | -104 | -0.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 62.2%
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State 62% to beat West Virginia (38%). Projected score: West Virginia 24.5, Iowa State 28.7.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Iowa State a 62% chance of beating West Virginia, against 38% for West Virginia. Iowa State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects West Virginia 24.5, Iowa State 28.7.