UCF
3-0
Houston
3-0
Win Probability
Projected score
22.5 – 30.7
UCF travels to Houston for a matchup between two undefeated teams, with the simulation favoring the Cougars decisively. Conner Weigman has a 53% chance of surpassing 290 passing yards, while Alonza Barnett III projects at just 48% to exceed 170—a gap that captures the offensive disparity the model sees. The game hinges on Houston's passing attack establishing itself early; if Weigman struggles and Amare Thomas fails to reach 90 receiving yards, UCF's visiting defense could tighten the contest considerably. AccuScore's record on similar home-favorite spots across 63 games stands at 60%, suggesting the lean toward Houston is sound but not overwhelming. For the Knights to pull the upset, they would need Barnett III to operate at peak efficiency and Waden Charles to impose their ground game on a Houston defense that hasn't been tested.
| Book | Line | HOU | EV | UCF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -11.5 | -108 | — | -112 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -11.5 | -105 | — | -115 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -11 | -108 | — | -110 | — |
| Book | HOU | EV | UCF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -455 | -6.9% | +350 | +15.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -480 | -7.3% | +360 | +17.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -450 | -6.9% | +340 | +14.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -118 | -1.3% | -102 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -106 | -2.4% | -114 | -2.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 51.5 | -102 | -1.5% | -118 | -2.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 29.3%
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston 71% to beat UCF (29%). Projected score: UCF 22.5, Houston 30.7.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Houston a 71% chance of beating UCF, against 29% for UCF. Houston are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects UCF 22.5, Houston 30.7.