Kentucky
3-0
South Carolina
2-0
Win Probability
Projected score
22.9 – 33.6
South Carolina hosts Kentucky in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Gamecocks. LaNorris Sellers projects to exceed 340 passing yards in 57% of outcomes, while Kenny Minchey clears 270 yards in just 51%—a gap that reflects where this game tilts. The deciding factor is South Carolina's ground game: Matt Fuller has a 46% chance of breaking 105 rushing yards, and if Kentucky's defense cannot contain that production, the Gamecocks' offensive balance becomes difficult to stop. AccuScore's model has won 60% of games shaped like this one historically, a modest but genuine edge for the favored side. Kentucky would need to force Sellers into an inefficient day and get unexpected contributions from its receiving corps to pull the upset.
| Book | Line | CAR | EV | KEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3 | -112 | — | -108 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -122 | — | +102 | — |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3 | -108 | — | -110 | — |
| Book | CAR | EV | KEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -155 | +14.2% | +130 | -24.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -152 | +14.7% | +126 | -25.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -150 | +15.0% | +125 | -25.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes South Carolina 78% to beat Kentucky (22%). Projected score: Kentucky 22.9, South Carolina 33.6.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Carolina the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Carolina a 78% chance of beating Kentucky, against 22% for Kentucky. South Carolina are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Kentucky 22.9, South Carolina 33.6.