Penn State
3-0
Northwestern
2-0
Win Probability
Projected score
28.1 – 22.4
Penn State travels to Northwestern as the simulation's clear choice in this matchup. The Nittany Lions' passing game will be central to their chances, with Rocco Becht showing a 52% chance of exceeding 240 yards through the air. For the home side, Caleb Komolafe has a 48% chance of rushing past 170 yards, a figure that will determine whether Northwestern can sustain drives and stay in control. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one—a moderate favourite on the road—stands at 48% over 56 prior matchups, a reminder that simulation leans this narrow rarely play out in reality. The Wildcats would need their ground game to establish itself early and Komolafe to hit that 170-yard mark while Penn State's passing attack sputters.
| Book | Line | NOR | EV | PEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -102 | -1.5% | -118 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | +102 | -0.5% | -118 | -2.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +2.5 | -102 | -1.5% | -118 | -2.9% |
| Book | NOR | EV | PEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +120 | -13.6% | -142 | +7.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +118 | -13.9% | -142 | +7.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +115 | -14.4% | -140 | +7.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -115 | +4.2% | -105 | -9.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -115 | +4.2% | -105 | -9.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | +5.3% | -108 | -9.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 64.8%
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State 67% to beat Northwestern (33%). Projected score: Penn State 28.1, Northwestern 22.4.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northwestern a 33% chance of beating Penn State, against 67% for Penn State. Northwestern are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Penn State 28.1, Northwestern 22.4.