Update, 3 November: Tyler Huntley has been ruled out for Thursday's game with a toe injury, and coach Jesse Minter has named rookie Joe Fagnano the starter at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Lamar Jackson is headed to injured reserve. Huntley is therefore not an option on Thursday; this comparison shows the gap between the two quarterbacks. It comes from a run earlier on 3 November. Our Lamar Jackson vs Joe Fagnano comparison uses a later run, so Fagnano's figures differ slightly.
AccuScore simulated the rest of the Baltimore Ravens' season 50,000 times with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback, then ran it again 50,000 times with Joe Fagnano starting instead — everything else held identical: the schedule, the 4-4-0 record so far, and the other 31 teams. The run was done 2026-11-03, the same day AccuScore's projected starter for the Ravens changed from Huntley to Fagnano.
The result: Baltimore's playoff chance is 17.7% with Huntley and 8.7% with Fagnano.
| With Tyler Huntley | With Joe Fagnano | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected wins | 7.62 | 6.78 | -0.84 |
| Playoff odds | 17.7% | 8.7% | -9.0 pts |
| Division odds | 3.6% | 1.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Conference odds | 1% | 0.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Super Bowl odds | 0.44% | 0.26% | -0.18 pts |
The gap shows up on a per-game basis too. With Huntley, AccuScore's average expected margin across the Ravens' remaining nine games is -3.24 points. With Fagnano, that average swings to -6.68 points — a 3.44-point swing per game in Huntley's favor.
It shows immediately in the next game. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars at home on 5 November, AccuScore has Baltimore at -9.9 points with Huntley starting, but -13.4 points with Fagnano.
In the AFC North, with Huntley, the Cincinnati Bengals (50.1% division, 83.1% playoff) and Pittsburgh Steelers (37.8% division, 78.4% playoff) remain the favorites, with the Ravens at 3.6% division and 17.7% playoff odds. With Fagnano, Cincinnati is at 50.1% division and 84.3% playoff and Pittsburgh at 39.8% division and 82% playoff, while Baltimore drops to 1.4% division and 8.7% playoff odds.
One caveat: Fagnano's number rests on a tiny sample and is the least certain input. What could flip this: AccuScore rates each quarterback on what he has done so far this season, not on potential or role fit. If either Huntley's or Fagnano's on-field performance shifts going forward, these projections would update with it.
Full season odds and more scenarios are tracked on AccuScore's season predictions page and the Ravens team page, with market comparisons at the Market Index.