The New York Knicks are part of this week's overreaction debate, with one headline suggesting their season is already cooked. AccuScore's simulations tell a different story.
Running the NBA season 50,000 times, AccuScore projects the Knicks to finish with a simulated season record of 43.9-38.1, a mark that still has them at 66.3% to make the playoffs. That's not the profile of a team that's done — it's a roster AccuScore still expects to be above .500 and in the postseason field in nearly two out of every three simulated outcomes.
The real record backs up why this is a live debate: the Knicks sit at 1-3 early on, the kind of start that fuels 'cooked' takes. But AccuScore's full-season simulation looks past the small sample of four games and projects the team's talent level over an 82-game grind, which is where the 66.3% figure comes from.
For context on how crowded the race is, two other teams in this week's headlines show just how wide the gap in outlooks can be. The Philadelphia 76ers, at 3-1, carry a similar simulated record of 40.9-41.1 but a slightly lower playoff probability at 55.5%. On the other end, the Brooklyn Nets at 0-4 project to just 26.7-55.3 with a 15.3% playoff probability — a number that actually supports a 'cooked' narrative, unlike the Knicks'.
So the overreaction headline asking whether the Knicks are finished gets a clear answer from AccuScore's model: not according to the simulations. A 66.3% playoff probability is a team AccuScore still expects to be playing meaningful basketball in the spring, not one that's already out of the picture.
As always, these are probabilities from AccuScore's 50,000-simulation model, not predictions of what will certainly happen — but they're a useful gut check against early-season panic. For a league-wide view of how teams are trending, check the Market Index.