The 'Inside the NBA' crew spent part of opening week asking why the Cleveland Cavaliers are being overlooked, and the question got louder after Philadelphia's 29-point comeback stunned them 114-106 in the home opener, with Tyrese Maxey scoring 32 and Joel Embiid adding 24. So what does the full-season picture actually look like? That's where AccuScore's simulations come in — not one box score, but 50,000 simulated seasons per team.
Heading into the year, both teams start 0-0, but AccuScore's projections already separate them.
| Team | Simulated Season | Playoff Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 40.3-34.7 | 80% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 37.9-37.1 | 67.8% |
According to AccuScore's simulations, Philadelphia projects for roughly three more wins over the course of the season and sits well ahead in playoff probability — 80% to 67.8%. That gap existed before Thursday's comeback was even played, meaning the model already saw the 76ers as the stronger team in the full-season picture, not just the team that happened to erase a 24-point halftime deficit.
That doesn't mean Cleveland's outlook is bad. A 67.8% playoff probability is still comfortably above a coin flip, and the Cavaliers remain projected to finish close to .500 over 75 games (37.9-37.1). But set against Philadelphia's 80% mark, the numbers suggest the 'overlooked' framing cuts both ways — Cleveland isn't being counted out by AccuScore's model, but it also isn't being projected as the better team of the two.
For context on where both teams rank against the rest of the league, AccuScore's Market Index tracks these probabilities as the season unfolds, game by game. One comeback win doesn't rewrite a season-long simulation, but it's a reminder that Philadelphia's season-long numbers were already pointing toward the better projected outcome — before Maxey and Embiid made it real on the court.