College Basketball · Atlantic 10
AccuScore projects Dayton to finish 21.9–10.1 with a 44% chance of making the NCAA Tournament and a 0.1% chance of winning the national championship.
From the daily season simulation: every remaining game played out thousands of times, then the 76-team tournament. All 365 schools →
| Make the field | 43.8% | |
| Play in the First Round | 38.6% | |
| Reach the Second Round | 19.7% | |
| Reach the Sweet 16 | 7.5% | |
| Reach the Elite Eight | 2.7% | |
| Reach the Final Four | 1.0% | |
| Reach the Championship | 0.4% | |
| Win the national title | 0.1% |
Likeliest seed lines: 12 (6%), 11 (5%), 8 (4%), 7 (4%).
| School | Proj | Conf title | Tourney |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | 21.9–10.1 | 21% | 44% |
| Saint Louis | 21.6–8.4 | 26% | 48% |
| George Washington | 20.7–10.3 | 15% | 29% |
| VCU | 20.4–8.6 | 21% | 46% |
| George Mason | 20.0–11.0 | 9% | 22% |
| Davidson | 19.9–12.1 | 10% |
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| 20% |
| Saint Joseph's | 16.7–12.3 | 6% | 14% |
| Duquesne | 16.7–13.3 | 4% | 8% |
| Richmond | 16.2–14.8 | 3% | 9% |
| St. Bonaventure | 15.6–15.4 | 4% | 8% |
| Rhode Island | 15.1–14.9 | 3% | 6% |
| Fordham | 14.6–15.4 | 2% | 4% |
| Loyola Chicago | 10.5–18.5 | 1% | 1% |
| La Salle | 9.4–19.6 | 0% | 1% |