NCAAB
Cal Poly
1-2
Idaho
2-1
Win Probability
Idaho hosts Cal Poly in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. The Vandals project to 84.7 points while the Mustangs reach 80.4, a narrow margin that hinges on perimeter shooting—Cal Poly's three-point volume will determine whether they can stay close. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 68% of the time across 2,205 graded contests. For Cal Poly to pull the upset, their defense would need to generate enough stops to slow Idaho's pace and keep the game low-scoring, a tall order on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | IDHO | EV | CP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | -102 | +9.2% | -120 | -13.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +1 | -115 | +8.9% | -105 | -13.8% |
| Book | IDHO | EV | CP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -115 | +7.9% | -104 | -12.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -110 | +9.1% | -110 | -13.6% |
| TwinSpires ↗ | -127 | +5.3% | +100 | -11.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -897 | -15.6% | -129 | -16.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 164.5 | -115 | -0.2% | -105 | -4.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 165 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.1% |
| TwinSpires ↗ | 167.5 | -104 | -4.7% | -121 | -0.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 166.5 | -115 | -4.7% | -120 | -2.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 61.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Idaho 62% to beat Cal Poly (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Idaho the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Idaho a 62% chance of beating Cal Poly, against 38% for Cal Poly. Idaho are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cal Poly (0-2 so far) project to finish 9.5–20.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Idaho (0-1 so far) project to finish 13.1–14.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Cal Poly and Idaho come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 3 times since 2022: Cal Poly 1, Idaho 2. The last meeting, on Dec 20, 2025, finished Idaho 83, Cal Poly 80.