Minnesota
2-0
Cincinnati
2-0
Win Probability
Cincinnati hosts Minnesota in a matchup between two unbeaten teams, with the simulation favoring the Bearcats decisively. MJ Collins Jr. of Cincinnati has a 47% chance of exceeding 21 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Minnesota's Jaylen Crocker-Johnson projects at 48% to surpass 22—a marginal difference that masks Cincinnati's depth advantage. The game hinges on whether Minnesota can match Cincinnati's balanced scoring; Myles Colvin, Eric Mahaffey, Tyler Tejada and Tylen Riley of the Bearcats all project at 45-46% to clear 18 combined, compared to Minnesota's more concentrated offensive load. When AccuScore has favored a team this strongly in similar spots, that team won 81% of the time across 1,326 graded games. For Minnesota to pull the upset, the Golden Gophers would need their role players to outperform Cincinnati's supporting cast by a meaningful margin.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | CIN | EV | MINN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -325 | -2.3% | +260 | -1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -295 | -1.1% | +235 | -4.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -300 | -1.3% | +240 | -4.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -280 | -0.5% | +230 | -5.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -300 | -1.3% | +240 | -4.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -14.3% | -110 | +9.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | -12.8% | -105 | +8.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 144.5 | -105 | -13.5% | -115 | +8.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 144 | -110 | -13.1% | -110 | +8.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -14.3% | -110 | +9.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati 73% to beat Minnesota (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cincinnati a 73% chance of beating Minnesota, against 27% for Minnesota. Cincinnati are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Minnesota (2-0 so far) project to finish 17.3–14.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 36% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Cincinnati (2-0 so far) project to finish 20.4–11.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 60% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 17.3–14.7 | 1% | 36% |
| Cincinnati | 20.4–11.6 | 4% | 60% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Minnesota and Cincinnati come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Minnesota have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Cincinnati have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).