Fairleigh Dickinson
Butler
Win Probability
Moneyline
FDU
+3000
2.3% win prob
EV -14.4%
theScore Bet
Moneyline
BTLR
-8000
97.7% win prob
EV -0.5%
DraftKings
Fairleigh Dickinson travels to face Butler in a matchup the simulation decisively favors the home side. Travis Torain has a 50% chance of exceeding 20 points, rebounds and assists, while Eduardo Klafke projects at 50% to surpass 17 in the same combined categories—matching marks that underscore how much Butler's overall depth should control the game. The decisive factor is Fairleigh Dickinson's scoring: the simulation projects the visitors 23 points below Butler, a gap that will be hard to close even if their lead scorers hit their marks. Across eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's favored side won all eight. For the Knights to pull the upset, they would need multiple role players to exceed their individual thresholds while Butler's supporting cast—Samis Calderon at 47% to top 24 combined, Jalen Jackson at 48% to top 22—falls short.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | BTLR | EV | FDU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8000 | -0.5% | +2200 | -23.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +2500 | -20.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -20000 | -0.9% | +3000 | -14.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -0.7% | +3000 | -14.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -0.7% | +606 | -41.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -5.6% | -105 | +1.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | +0.0% | -110 | -4.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Butler 98% to beat Fairleigh Dickinson (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Butler the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Butler a 98% chance of beating Fairleigh Dickinson, against 2% for Fairleigh Dickinson. Butler are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Fairleigh Dickinson (0-1 so far) project to finish 8.9–20.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Butler (1-0 so far) project to finish 16.3–15.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 8.9–20.1 | 5% | 7% |
| Butler | 16.3–15.7 | 2% | 26% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Fairleigh Dickinson and Butler come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Fairleigh Dickinson have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).