Liverpool
Fenerbahçe
Win Probability
Liverpool travels to Fenerbahçe in a Champions League fixture where the simulation clearly favours the visitors. The model projects a narrow margin, with the decisive factor being whether Fenerbahçe can limit Liverpool's attacking threat—a contest that will likely determine whether the combined score exceeds the market total. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's historical record stands at 6 wins across 8 comparable matchups. For Fenerbahçe to upset that lean, the hosts would need to convert chances at an unusually high rate while forcing Liverpool into defensive mistakes.
| Book | Line | FEN | EV | LIV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | FEN | EV | LIV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +573 | +34.1% | -229 | -11.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +540 | +30.0% | -224 | -11.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged. On soccer's three results only bets backing a result count: a bet against one team could be on either of the other two.
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Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Liverpool 54% to win, Fenerbahçe 25%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Liverpool the more likely winner at 54%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Fenerbahçe a 25% chance of beating Liverpool, with 54% for Liverpool and 21% for a draw. Fenerbahçe are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Liverpool and Fenerbahçe come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Liverpool have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Fenerbahçe have won 0 of their last 2, drawing 1 (D-L, most recent first).