Tampa Bay Rays
98-64
New York Yankees
93-68
Win Probability
Moneyline
TB
41.0% win prob
Moneyline
NYY
59.0% win prob
Projected score
2.4 – 3.0
When the Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees, the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. Aaron Judge carries a 22% chance of a home run, while Austin Wells has a 50% probability of recording a hit—modest projections that reflect how tightly this matchup is expected to play out. The game turns on run prevention; the model expects fewer than three runs per team. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one favors the home team in theory but has actually won just 49% of the time across more than 6,000 similar matchups. For Tampa Bay to pull the upset, its pitching would need to hold New York well below the simulation's expectation.
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Yankees 59% to beat Tampa Bay Rays (41%). Projected score: Tampa Bay Rays 2.4, New York Yankees 3.0.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Yankees the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New York Yankees a 59% chance of beating Tampa Bay Rays, against 41% for Tampa Bay Rays. New York Yankees are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Tampa Bay Rays 2.4, New York Yankees 3.0.