San Diego Padres
91-71
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59
Win Probability
Moneyline
SD
52.5% win prob
Moneyline
MIL
47.5% win prob
Projected score
3.3 – 3.1
The San Diego Padres travel to face the Milwaukee Brewers in a tight contest where the simulation slightly favours the visiting side. Across 10,000 simulations, the model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on whether either offense can manufacture runs consistently—a challenge both lineups face in games with this statistical profile. On similar matchups across eight past games, AccuScore's model won just three, a reminder that tight contests remain genuinely uncertain. For Milwaukee to prevail at home, it would need to break through a San Diego lineup that the simulation treats as marginally more likely to emerge with a win.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 SD
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F5 Total
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F5 MIL
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| Book | Line | MIL | EV | SD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -400 | -26.5% | +292 | +72.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -400 | -26.5% | +280 | +68.6% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -417 | -26.7% | +272 | +66.1% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +1.5 | -417 | -26.7% | +272 | +66.1% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -385 | -26.3% | +260 | +62.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 8.5 | +156 | -19.5% | -189 | +8.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | 7.5 | +110 | -16.1% | -133 | +9.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | 8.5 | +180 | -16.7% | -244 | +3.7% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 8.5 | +145 | -20.8% | -222 | +5.2% |
| Marathon ↗ | 8.5 | +148 | -20.5% | -200 | +7.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 67.4%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego Padres 53% to beat Milwaukee Brewers (48%). Projected score: San Diego Padres 3.3, Milwaukee Brewers 3.1.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego Padres the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Milwaukee Brewers a 48% chance of beating San Diego Padres, against 53% for San Diego Padres. Milwaukee Brewers are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects San Diego Padres 3.3, Milwaukee Brewers 3.1.