New York Yankees
93-68
Tampa Bay Rays
98-64
Win Probability
Moneyline
NYY
35.5% win prob
Moneyline
TB
64.5% win prob
Projected score
2.8 – 3.5
The New York Yankees travel to face the Tampa Bay Rays in a tight contest that the simulation favours slightly for the visitors. New York's Aaron Judge has a 20% chance of a home run, while Austin Wells projects to reach base in 49% of plate appearances—modest figures that reflect how close this matchup is. The game turns on whether either offence can break through; the simulation projects just 2.8 runs for the Yankees and 2.5 for Tampa Bay. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has won 49% of the time across the AL over thousands of attempts. For the Rays to pull off the upset at home, they will need to limit the damage when Judge gets his chances and keep Wells off the bases.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 NYY
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F5 Total
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F5 TB
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| Book | Line | TB | EV | NYY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -238 | -18.4% | +191 | +30.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -250 | -18.9% | +185 | +29.2% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -244 | -18.7% | +173 | +25.8% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +1.5 | -244 | -18.7% | +173 | +25.8% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -238 | -18.4% | +175 | +26.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 7 | -114 | -15.3% | -101 | +13.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | 6.5 | -133 | -14.1% | +110 | +12.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 7 | -105 | -14.1% | -116 | +9.3% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 7.5 | +115 | -15.3% | -161 | +4.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | 7 | -114 | -15.3% | -114 | +9.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 59.0%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays 65% to beat New York Yankees (36%). Projected score: New York Yankees 2.8, Tampa Bay Rays 3.5.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Rays a 65% chance of beating New York Yankees, against 36% for New York Yankees. Tampa Bay Rays are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects New York Yankees 2.8, Tampa Bay Rays 3.5.