AEK Athens
Shakhtar Donetsk
Win Probability
Projected score
1.1 – 2.0
Shakhtar Donetsk hosts AEK Athens in a Champions League fixture where the simulation clearly favours the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on whether Shakhtar can convert its attacking chances; across similar matchups, AccuScore's win-probability calls have hit at 44% over 4,074 games. For AEK Athens to pull off an upset on the road, they would need to frustrate Shakhtar's attack and capitalize on limited opportunities of their own, a difficult task for a travelling side in this spot.
| Book | Line | SHA | EV | AEK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | SHA | EV | AEK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +173 | +26.4% | +151 | -26.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | +160 | +22.8% | +155 | -26.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | +170 | +25.6% | +155 | -26.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | +162 | +23.4% | +150 | -26.5% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +163 | +23.6% | +150 | -26.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | -118 | +5.5% | -101 | -10.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -133 | +2.6% | -105 | -11.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -125 | +4.1% | +100 | -10.1% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 2.5 | -130 | +3.2% | -110 | -11.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | 2.5 | -118 | +5.5% | -103 | -10.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 60.1%
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Shakhtar Donetsk 56% to win, AEK Athens 19%, with a 25% chance of a draw. Projected score: AEK Athens 1.1, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.0. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2 (10% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Shakhtar Donetsk the more likely winner at 56%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 56% chance of beating AEK Athens, with 19% for AEK Athens and 25% for a draw. Shakhtar Donetsk are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects AEK Athens 1.1, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.0, with 1-2 the single most likely scoreline.